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Outbreak of Coronavirus in Iran Compared to Countries with the Highest Incidence

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Abstract

Introduction:

The coronavirus outbreak has become a serious issue of the entire world. In some ways, the ability to provide outbreak rate prediction is helpful. Therefore the main purpose of this study is to investigate the incidence pattern of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in Iran, and comparison between countries with high infected person such as USA, Brazil and others.

Material and Methods:

A total of 7801401 infected cases with COVID 19 related countries with highest infection, USA, Brazil, India, Russia, Peru, Chile, Mexico, Spain, UK, South Africa, Iran and Pakistan  in 17 weeks timespan was extracted from the Daily New Cases chart at  https://www.worldmeters. Info/coronavirus/. Also, the incidence rate pattern was presented. The frequency distribution charts used to compare countries.

Results:

In Iran, from the interval of first week to the end of fifth week after observing the 100th case of infection, the trend of identifying patients was upward, and after that, it showed a decreasing tendency until the end of the 10th week. However, it seems that from the 10th to the 12th week, the trend has been increasing and after that it has been almost constant. In countries such as South Africa, India, and Brazil, however, this trend has roughly always been ascending during this period, and in other countries it has been fluctuated.

Conclusion:

The Covid-19 has become pandemic disease. Finding similar incidence rate with other countries aimed for applying appropriate intervention is helpful.

INTRODUCTION

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the coronavirus outbreak has become a serious issue of the entire world [1]. This virus has infected more than 200 countries and 15,000,000 people and killed 600,000 people so far [2]. The virus has infected all industries, especially healthcare industry and has imposed higher costs for everyone [3, 4]. Coronavirus is increasing in various countries regardless of race, climate and other factors [5]. Since there is currently no cure for the virus, the only solution is to use appropriate prevention strategies. The unpredicted prevalence rate is another problem in reducing transmission [6]. There are many countries that don’t have well-developed health care systems, knowledge of the prevalence rate in these countries is very useful. The only information available about the prevalence rate is the use of the prevalence rate in countries with high rates of infection, such as China, which have been infected earlier. By comparing the prevalence rate with high rate countries and finding similarities, their interventions can be used to reduce the outbreak. This provides more time for a treatment to be developed also helps resource management [7, 8]. Therefore the main purpose of this study was to investigate the incidence pattern of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran, and compare with countries with high infected person such as USA and Brazil for finding similarity incidence rate.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

According to the report on July 20, 2020 in world meters info page (https://www.worldometers. Info/coronavirus/) more than 15 million infected cases with CVID-19 have been identified worldwide. The epidemics in USA, Brazil, India, Russia, Peru, Chile, Mexico, Spain, UK, South Africa, Iran and Pakistan have been the highest, respectively. In this study, the total number of cases per day and per country were extracted based on the Daily New Cases chart and stored in Excel 2016 worksheets (7801401 cases). Also the study period considered 17 weeks since the hundred infected cases has observed for each country. In this study, day 1 indicate 100 or more COVID-19 infected case had been identified in that country. For Iran Feb 26, USA and Spain, Mar 2, UK, Mar 5,Brazil Mar 13, India Mar 14,Chile and Pakistan Mar 16, Russia Mar 17,South Africa Mar 18 and Mexico Mar 19 was considered as first day. The number of USA patients recorded from Mar 2 to June29, number of Brazil cases from Mar 13 to Jul11, number of India from March 14 to Jul 12, number of Russia from Mar 17 to Jul 15, number of Peru from Mar 17 to Jul 15, number of Chile from Mar 16 to Jul 14, number of Mexico from Mar 19 to Jul 17 , number of infected Spain from Mar 2 to June 29 , number of infected UK from Mar 5 to Jul 2, number of infected South Africa from Mar 18 to Jul 16, number of infected Iran from Feb 26 to June 23 and number of infected Pakistan from Mar 16 to Jul 14 imported to study. The main purpose is to discover incidence rate patterns in the countries with high infection rates. To achieve this, draw a frequency distribution chart and compare with target countries

RESULTS

Analytical information about the study is observed in Table1 and Fig 1.

Table 1

Frequency for coronavirus outbreak during 17 weeks since the hundred cases has observed.

week USA Brazil India Russia Peru Chile Mexico Spain UK South Africa Iran Pakistan
1 441 489 149 324 278 558 287 554 311 438 2197 592
2 2918 2015 555 341 534 1630 740 6757 1840 644 5120 722
3 29335 4627 2072 4006 1496 2367 1407 18826 5656 369 7169 1440
4 101201 8951 4012 10831 6830 2807 2218 44974 16094 570 7450 1464
5 176523 10894 5906 26019 6022 3000 3654 43687 24403 959 17588 2852
6 193263 15810 8082 34384 10862 3305 6208 30156 30165 1361 14996 4436
7 176146 32385 10974 51710 16182 6847 8626 28575 27464 2222 10291 6169
8 189850 43584 19996 65974 17633 9624 10690 26419 20837 6658 8413 9393
9 178636 57026 22976 58435 22874 16054 14160 17700 26892 5126 6588 9210
10 156475 92698 34146 53486 24496 26968 17966 16362 22910 6261 6313 12476
11 145666 107922 42068 52536 40288 30067 19303 9576 17266 9875 9117 13147
12 138842 147532 54357 52917 24812 33931 88808 4664 13455 15466 11878 26483
13 133454 159643 62981 51957 29256 41486 25679 4029 9706 20913 12562 35559
14 288950 153457 74186 46822 20291 32349 68383 1912 8388 25696 15971 32139
15 136691 194579 97719 41451 21555 25019 29242 2211 7220 39413 15231 21867
16 172986 221299 120312 33402 17505 19533 36238 2163 6286 56522 14501 21962
17 246263 215762 148699 39300 20623 16484 36483 2266 5232 73627 14919 17054
FIH-9-38-g001.jpg

Fig 1

Frequency for coronavirus outbreak in USA, Brazil, India, Russia, Peru, Chile, Mexico and Spain during 17 weeks since the hundred cases has observed

In all countries, in the 1st five weeks after observing the 100th case of the disease, an upward trend is seen in the number of patients. Probably either no intervention has taken place or the effect of the intervention is not seen. In the 1st ten weeks after the 1st case of the disease, the number of patients in the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Iran decreased such that in the 7th week in the United States, in the 9th week in Russia, in the 8th week in the UK, and in the 6th week in Iran the trend decreased compared to previous weeks. While in countries such as Brazil, India, Peru, Chile, Mexico, and South Africa the number of patients was constantly increasing during this period.

Between the 10th and 15th weeks after observing the 100th person with Covid-19, there was an approximately declining trend in India, Russia, Spain, and the United Kingdom, a nearly upward trend was observed in Brazil, South Africa, and Iran, and in other countries the tendency was oscillating.

DISCUSSION

The Coronaviruses (CoVs) have substantially caused a great concern in the century and rapidly spread throughout the world. The outbreak of coronavirus has resulted in applying useful approach for prevention. Therefore the main purpose of this study was to investigate the incidence pattern of confirmed COVID-19 Cases in Iran, and comparison between countries with high infected person such as USA, Brazil, India, Russia, Peru and others. Findings show in Iran, from week one to the end of week five the trend of identifying patients was increasing, and after that, it showed a decreasing trend until the end of the 10th week. However, it seems that from the 10th to the 12th week, the trend has been increasing and after that it has been almost constant. In countries such as South Africa, India, and Brazil, however, this trend has roughly always been upward during this period, and in other countries it has been fluctuated. Countries with a declining incidence of Covid-19 appear to have used beneficial interventions and methods that were effective in reducing the spread of the disease.

CONCLUSION

It is recommended that other countries, being informed of those interventions, use appropriate strategies to prevent further spread of the disease. Countries can be prepared to face an unpredictable disaster, knowing the incidence rate. Also, the prevention and prediction strategies such as information about the same incidence rate of other countries aimed at applying appropriate intervention is a necessity.

AUTHOR’S CONTRIBUTION

The authors agree on this final form of the manuscript, and attested that all authors contributed in the final draft of the manuscript. 

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

The authors declare no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this study.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE

No financial interests related to the material of this manuscript have been declared.

References

1. Guan WJ, Ni ZY, Hu Y, Liang WH, Ou CQ, He JX, et al. Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1708–20.
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6. Li G, De Clercq E. Therapeutic options for the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Nat Rev Drug Discov 2020;19(3):149–50.
7. Anderson RM, Heesterbeek H, Klinkenberg D, Hollingsworth TD. How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?. The Lancet. 2020;395:931–4.
8. Bowman S, Unwin N, Critchley J, Capewell S, Husseini A, Maziak W, et al. Use of evidence to support healthy public policy: A policy effectiveness-feasibility loop. Bull World Health Organ 2012;90(11):847–53.

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